College Football Playoff Picture Sharpened

College Football Playoff Picture Sharpened

The latest CFP rankings released on November 18, 2025 show a tightening field: Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) remain the top seed, followed by Indiana Hoosiers (11-0), Texas A&M Aggies (10-0), and Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) filling out the top four. 

For coaches like Ryan Day (Ohio State), Curt Cignetti (Indiana) and Mike Elko (Texas A&M) the pressure is mounting—not just to make the field, but to earn one of the valuable first-round byes in the 12-team format.

Ohio State continues to justify its No. 1 ranking under coach Ryan Day, powered by a dominant offense highlighted by wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and a defense that has held strong throughout the season. Indiana remains one of the nation’s biggest surprises, as Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have surged to a historic 11-0 start that few predicted before the season. Texas A&M, led by Mike Elko, is still perfect at 10-0 and showed resilience in a narrow 31-30 comeback win over South Carolina, one of the year’s most dramatic escapes.

Georgia, despite one early loss, has reentered the championship conversation thanks to the steady play of quarterback Gunner Stockton and a defense that remains among the country’s best. Meanwhile, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Oregon are pushing hard just outside the top four—Texas Tech and Ole Miss both sit at 10-1, while Oregon holds a strong 9-1 mark and remains firmly in the hunt. Beyond the top contenders, several surprise and bubble teams have emerged, including BYU at 9-1 and Group-of-Five challenger Tulane, which sits at 8-2 and has seen its playoff odds rise to +194 in one futures market.

Top 5 National-Championship Odds (Futures)

Here are the published national-championship odds for the 2025-26 season (latest available):

  1. Ohio State (+185)
  2. Indiana (+450)
  3. Texas A&M (+800)
  4. Georgia (+900)
  5. Notre Dame (+1100)

The elite teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M) are getting the most attention—and for good reason—but the margin for error is razor-thin. A single loss now could instantly shift a team from bye-lock to bubble. For coaches, the need to win out becomes urgent. Players like Harrison Jr., Stockton and others now face the pressure of expectation rather than surprise.

At the same time, the futures board reflects both confidence and risk: betting markets are saying Ohio State will likely win it all, but the presence of long-shots (Georgia, Notre Dame) means a slip could be costly. Programs just behind the top tier still have paths, especially if they win out and key opponents trip up.

As the season heads into its closing weeks, the focus will be on key head-to-head matchups, conference championship games and the final rankings drop (the next reveal is December 2). Teams need to lock in their conference titles and secure high-seed positioning. If Ohio State or Indiana falter late, expect chaos. Meanwhile, sports-book watchers will monitor how futures adjust after each loss or upset. The playoff field is shaping up—but isn’t settled.

Sources

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